Week Four Pick
Every Friday, I’ll be giving out a pick(s).
The number of picks will vary. If I feel particularly confident about five games, it’ll be five; if it’s just two, then that’s what I’ll go with.
This week it’s only one. I really try to be disciplined and only give out picks I REALLY like.
It’s important to note that while my picks are based on research, they can be deeply irrational and flawed.
I’m a big fan of analyzing coaching matchups. A little tip for sounding knowledgeable about college football is to say, “I love (or hate) [BLANK COACH] in this spot.” It might sound somewhat nonsensical, but people tend to roll with it.
In all seriousness, I believe in this approach. History often repeats itself with coaches who stay at a program for several years. I also look for what I call “like games” in coaches' recent histories. For example, how does a coach typically perform against the spread when favored by three touchdowns or more against a conference opponent at home? I’ve found some interesting trends through this lens.
People often forget that in 2022, I gave my friends a “lock of the week” that started 6-0 before I, naturally, stopped sharing them out of fear of losing my perfect streak. No one can take that perfect season from me—like UCF in 2017!
And as I think about it, I didn't give out picks in 2023. So I actually haven't given out a losing bet since November 26th, 2021. That’s 1,036 days. WOW.
Anyway, here’s my first week’s pick:
Utah -8 (Home vs. Arizona)
I love Utah football (Kyle Whittingham is the man) so I had to be careful not to let my bias take over. I wanted to see how Whittingham’s teams do in similar situations to this one. I looked at the last ten games where Utah:
Played at home against a conference opponent.
I did not include the Baylor game this season because that’s not a TRUE conference game yet. First year of the Big 12 feels like every game is a non-conference game (Colorado is playing a conference game in Orlando this weekend). They did play each other in 2023, but even then there’s a difference between that and playing programs that you know inside and out.
Was favored by between 8-15 points.
In these last ten situations, Utah is 8-2 against the spread. Their two “losses” came in 2021 and 2020.
In 2022 and 2023 they played four games like these and won those games by an average of 30.8 points.
There’s a chance Cam Rising doesn't play. If you take this pick and tune in you may think, “What the heck, is Utah’s quarterback Zach Wilson???” DON’T WORRY. IT’S NOT. I know picking even a Zach Wilson look-a-like is daunting, but again, it’s not Zach.
It’s his brother.